Israel will attack Iran if US diplomacy fails

http://gsn.nti.org/siteservices/full_edition.php?Edition=8/14/2009

The following sub-article appears in the above Global Security Newswire, dated 8-14-2009:

Israel Could Slow Iranian Nuclear-Weapon Drive, Official Says

Friday, Aug. 14, 2009

An Israeli attack could set back Iran's nuclear-weapon development efforts, a security official in Jerusalem told the newspaper Maariv in remarks published yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 13).

Iran is working to conceal its nuclear work and bolster its ability to retaliate against attacks, giving Israel a limited window of opportunity to launch an effective strike, United Press International quoted the official as saying.

Israel, the United States and some European countries have expressed concern that Iranian uranium enrichment activities could support nuclear weapons development, but Tehran has maintained that its atomic ambitions are strictly peaceful.

The Israeli official suggested his nation would not wait for the OK from Washington before launching a strike. Still, Israel should let U.S. diplomatic overtures to Tehran play out before considering an attack, according to Maariv.

Since taking office in January, the Obama administration has encouraged Iran to join renewed multilateral discussions aimed at halting its uranium enrichment program. To date, Tehran has expressed little interest in joining such talks. Washington has suggested that it could pursue new sanctions against Iran should it fail to agree to additional discussions by next month (United Press International, Aug. 13).

COMMENT:

Anyone reading about correspondence between Japan and the U.S. leading up to and including World War II will be amazed at how often the two nations misunderstood each other. Major decisions were made costing thousands of lives, based upon misunderstandings. The same state of affairs exists today between Middle-Eastern nations and Western nations. It is an historical fact, for example, that Saddam Hussein utterly misunderstood America’s position – during the administrations of both Bush 41 & Bush 43.

And today, Iran may or may not be misunderstanding the Obama administration, but it has no logical reason for misunderstanding Israel’s position. Middle-Eastern nations have attacked Israel several times. Who can keep track of the times Israel has been attacked. So it should tax no one’s imagination, not even the imagination of an Iranian, to suspect that Israel is paranoid about being attacked.

What does Israel do when it fears immanent attack? If possible it preempts the attack. What about the preparation of nuclear weapons by a Middle Eastern nation, bearing in mind that Israel is so small even a near miss might wipe out half the nation? We needn’t wonder. We have an historical incident. Saddam Hussein amidst threats of what he was going to do to Israel (threats reminiscent of those issued by Ahmadinejad) began the development of nuclear weapons. Read what Wikipedia has to say about the Israeli attack on Saddam’s nuclear reactor:

“In the late 1970s, Iraq purchased an "Osiris class" nuclear reactor from France. Israeli military intelligence assumed this was for the purpose of plutonium production to further an Iraqi nuclear weapons program. Israeli intelligence also believed that the summer of 1981 would be the last chance to destroy the reactor before it would be loaded with nuclear fuel.”

Now notice the similarity of the language: The Wikipedia article says “Israeli intelligence . . . believed that the summer of 1981 would be the last chance to destroy the reactor before it would be loaded with nuclear fuel.” The Global Security News wire article says, “. . . Iran is working to conceal its nuclear work . . . giving Israel a limited window of opportunity to launch an effective strike . . .”

Iran should realize that Israel is paranoid about being attacked. It should also know that Israel will make use of the “window” available to it for destroying nuclear weapons of those swearing to attack them.

It may seem from the Global Security Network article that I took some liberties with my title. A strict reading of that article should have caused me to entitle this post “Israel may attack Iran if US diplomacy fails.” But I have merely drawn the logical conclusion based upon the evidence at hand. “Israel will attack Iran if US diplomacy fails.” Shall we not fault Iranian officials if they are not capable of drawing the same conclusion?